We built the Adaptation Economy Index so economists can pick it up and make it their own. This quarter, in Gaborone, one did , Keith Jefferis did just that.
Keith Jefferis runs Econsult, Botswana's leading independent economic consultancy, and compiles its quarterly Economic Review. Each edition carries a special feature outside the usual data cycle - for Q2 2026, Keith's was "Facilitating Adaptation to Climate Change,"
Why Botswana, and why now
The subject matter needed no manufacturing. Botswana is semi-arid, water-scarce and highly exposed to heat stress, drought and rainfall variability - the special feature runs through the likely impacts on water security, agriculture, infrastructure and public health out to 2050. The policy backdrop is moving too: Botswana's government is currently drafting its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC3) to the UNFCCC, and Keith noted a real shift in emphasis compared with previous rounds. "The latest NDC is giving more emphasis to adaptation," he said. "The general policy environment is moving away from just focusing on reducing emissions to how we're going to adapt as a country to this new environment."
What the Index added
The Index wasn’t just new data on Botswana's climate risk - it offered a way of framing the environment adaptation has to operate within. "It's not just the specific action items, but the political, economic and social environment within which adaptation has to be planned and implemented," he explained. "It's an indirect measure of capability, of the absorptive capacity of societies and economies." The cross-country element mattered too - seeing Botswana's strengths and weaknesses relative to other economies.
A diagnostic, not a scoreboard
Botswana's overall AEI score is 5.40 out of 10, ranking 59th of 72 - below the all-country average, though ahead of the Sub-Saharan Africa average. More telling is the shape behind it: comparatively strong on Financial Market Strength, Entrepreneurship & Innovation and Governance, but lagging furthest on Risk Expectations & Behavioural Change and Social Cohesion. That's what a diagnostic tool is for - helping build up a clearer story to inform and share economic policy.
Shaping a wider conversation
Special features rarely get the immediate attention that day-to-day commentary does, and Keith wasn't expecting this one to be different. "These things tend to get used more as a reference item," he said. "I'd expect it to be more of a slow burn rather than making an immediate splash." What he has noticed is a shift in the wider conversation: adaptation is climbing the policy agenda in Botswana at the same time as this piece has been circulating, and the special feature is now part of that reference material - the kind of analysis, he noted, "not done anywhere else in the country."
How could you use the AEI?
We asked Keith what he'd tell a counterpart elsewhere - a central banker, a finance ministry economist - weighing up whether to apply the Index to their own context. "Definitely," he said. "It's one of a kind, it’s new, and I think there must be others like me who like these cross-country comparisons, where you can see strengths and weaknesses. It shines a light on the socio-political-economic environment within which adaptation efforts have to take place. The Adaptation Economy Index is very helpful from that point of view."
The full Econsult Q2 2026 Economic Review, including Keith's special feature, is free to download from https://econsult.co.bw/download-latest-report/. Explore the Index yourself at morphosis.solutions/adaptation-economy.
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